COMMENTARY | Presidential hopeful Mitt Romney lost both the southern states in Tuesday's primary contests, and although he didn't lose by much in either battle, his words after his narrow Michigan win -- "We didn't win by a lot, but we won by enough" -- can now be appropriated by his rival, Rick Santorum. Will it hurt him in the long run? Possibly, given Republican voters' wariness of Romney as a presidential nominee and if enough people begin to be swayed by his opponents' words. But Romney's biggest problem in winning votes in the South comes down to three things: his religion, his education, and his wealth.
Exit polls taken by CNN in both Mississippi and Alabama indicate that those with lower incomes, less education, and of an evangelical religious bent tended to vote for Santorum (and Newt Gingrich) than for Romney.
In Mississippi, where Santorum won by only 2 percent of the vote (over both Romney and Gingrich), 34.5 percent of those who made less than $100,000 in annual income, comprising 74 percent of the voters, supported the former Pennsylvania senator. In education, 34 percent of voters who had attended "some college" or had "never attended college," a demographic that made up 57 percent of all Mississippi voters, cast ballots in favor of Santorum (28 percent voted for Romney). White evangelicals, which comprise 80 percent of the voters, supported Santorum by a 35 percent to 29 percent margin.
In neighboring Alabama, where Santorum took the victory by 6 percent of the vote (Romney and Gingrich tied for second in the Heart of Dixie), those making less than $100,000 per annum made up 77 percent of the voter turnout. Exit polls revealed 36.5 percent of those voters supported Santorum. As for education, 56 percent of the voters had either not attended college or had some college experience -- Santorum took 33 percent of that vote as opposed to Romney's 26 percent. And in the white evangelical demographic, Santorum took 35 percent (to Romney's 27 percent) of a demographic that accounted for 75 percent of the Magnolia State voters.
Alabama and Mississippi, according to a 2009 Gallup Poll, are America's two most religious states (Tennessee, which Santorum won on Super Tuesday, is fourth). Both ranked in the Top 10 poorest states (Mississippi ranks No. 1), according to the U. S. Census Bureau. And both states rank in the Top 10 of the least educated states, according to a 2007 Morgan Quitno report. Numbers released by the National Center for Education Statistics in 2011 show the two states to be among states with the highest dropout rates in the nation.
There is a direct relationship between less education and lower income, just as there is a direct relationship between less education, lower income, and the propensity to be more religious.
Consider that the Southern Baptist Church, the largest religious denomination throughout the South, holds the deep-seated belief that Mormonism, Romney's religion, as nothing short of a cult, and Romney will continue to have problems in the South (where, except for Florida, he's yet to win a Southern state during the primary season).
Then add to that the fact Romney is perceived as "out-of-touch," because of his education and wealth, with the average American -- in Alabama and Mississippi "average" generally means poor, ill-educated, and evangelical -- and there exists an even bigger problem for the former Massachusetts governor. He's seen as elitist, because education is distrusted by those who have acquired less of it and his wealth places him apart from the vast majority of voters. He's seen as liberal (to the average conservative voter), a symptom of his education and reflected in his political record.
Ultimately, the numbers and the trends indicate that Romney will most likely not win a Southern state. (Some might point to Virginia, but neither Santorum nor Gingrich, the two GOP presidential contenders that resonate well with Southern voters, were on the Virginia ballot.) It might not keep him from eventually taking the GOP nomination in Tampa in August but it will certainly make it more difficult for him to do so. And when you throw in a couple of the border states like West Virginia and Kentucky -- also among the least educated, less wealthy, and more religious crowd -- not to mention upcoming contests in North Carolina, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Texas, Romney's southern problem looms a bit larger and could conceivably stall Romney's nomination run just shy of the 1,144 delegates needed to get the nod, forcing a brokered convention.
It could very well effectively kill his chance to become the 2012 nominee. By extension, it could also destroy his chances at winning the presidency should he get the nomination. But, then, he could be saved by the fact that many of those same ill-educated poor white evangelicals would go to the polls to help ensure that President Obama would not get a second term.
In their way of thinking, better a rich, educated, Mormon than a rich, educated, socialist Muslim.
Source: http://news.yahoo.com/romneys-evangelical-southern-problem-hes-rich-educated-mormon-234500286.html
the muppet movie the muppet movie mars rover mars rover trent richardson apple cup jewelry stores
No comments:
Post a Comment